Is it a long-term slide?

I’ve had some interesting comments privately from people about the significant decline on active Australian Second Life users over the past two months.

deserted.jpg

So, I’ve created a topic on the SLOz forums to delve a bit deeper – why the slump? Wold love to hear your thoughts.

Comments

  1. Bailey Halberd says:

    I think it is a period of consolidation for SL that is long overdue. SL has experienced explosive growth for a while now. A period of decline was inevitable in my opinion. It simply is not the newest, shiniest thing any more. After the consolidation will come the sustainable growth.

  2. Bailey Halberd says:

    I think it is a period of consolidation for SL that is long overdue. SL has experienced explosive growth for a while now. A period of decline was inevitable in my opinion. It simply is not the newest, shiniest thing any more. After the consolidation will come the sustainable growth.

  3. I thought I might as well comment here as well as on the other thread..

    My predictions are that we will see a continual decline, especially after all the issues that Second Life has had in the last few weeks, I think those issues definitely aren’t good in terms of retention..

    Gary mentioned in the other thread that a large part of this is due to the summer season over here.. I think that there is truth in there, but perhaps one of the shades in the system dynamic. Remember that the retention ratio of new Second Lifers is or was, something like 10%, which I think is a relatively low amount, but hopefully will improve with future bug fixes in the system and useability.

    The number of documentaries on Second Life and news stories in media such as the age, sydney morning herald has most definitely been on the decrease.. Last I saw related news was over 4 or 5 months ago.

    So my prediction is a dip in numbers from now and it should level out and even increase around about the end of November, when uni and high school are closed and summer party season has taken effect…

  4. I thought I might as well comment here as well as on the other thread..

    My predictions are that we will see a continual decline, especially after all the issues that Second Life has had in the last few weeks, I think those issues definitely aren’t good in terms of retention..

    Gary mentioned in the other thread that a large part of this is due to the summer season over here.. I think that there is truth in there, but perhaps one of the shades in the system dynamic. Remember that the retention ratio of new Second Lifers is or was, something like 10%, which I think is a relatively low amount, but hopefully will improve with future bug fixes in the system and useability.

    The number of documentaries on Second Life and news stories in media such as the age, sydney morning herald has most definitely been on the decrease.. Last I saw related news was over 4 or 5 months ago.

    So my prediction is a dip in numbers from now and it should level out and even increase around about the end of November, when uni and high school are closed and summer party season has taken effect…

  5. I agree with Daniels comment -
    “The number of documentaries on Second Life and news stories in media such as the age, sydney morning herald has most definitely been on the decrease.. Last I saw related news was over 4 or 5 months ago.”
    I would like to see more RL media exposure. Its not like a game on a store shelf that gets promoted and advertised. SL relies on us aussie residents to gain real world media attention, just like many did those 4-5 months ago.
    As for “when uni and high school are closed and summer party season has taken effect” correct me if I am wrong but isn’t the average age of uses a lot higher than that? And its also seems to me that it is the older age group 25 and up that are the ones that tend to stick around in SL. After all Sl is not WOW or Call of Duty :)
    I personally think we will see a further decline but like they say its quality not quanity that I like to see of aussies in the community and having a good time making something out of their SecondLife.
    Cheers.

  6. I agree with Daniels comment -
    “The number of documentaries on Second Life and news stories in media such as the age, sydney morning herald has most definitely been on the decrease.. Last I saw related news was over 4 or 5 months ago.”
    I would like to see more RL media exposure. Its not like a game on a store shelf that gets promoted and advertised. SL relies on us aussie residents to gain real world media attention, just like many did those 4-5 months ago.
    As for “when uni and high school are closed and summer party season has taken effect” correct me if I am wrong but isn’t the average age of uses a lot higher than that? And its also seems to me that it is the older age group 25 and up that are the ones that tend to stick around in SL. After all Sl is not WOW or Call of Duty :)
    I personally think we will see a further decline but like they say its quality not quanity that I like to see of aussies in the community and having a good time making something out of their SecondLife.
    Cheers.

  7. Wolfie Rankin says:

    Help island, with it’s extreme lag and griefers really doesn’t help a lot, and I was wondering how many give up when they see that and think that all of SL is like that?

    Wolfie!

  8. Wolfie Rankin says:

    Help island, with it’s extreme lag and griefers really doesn’t help a lot, and I was wondering how many give up when they see that and think that all of SL is like that?

    Wolfie!

  9. ABC Island had a performance space that never got used. Bigpond didn’t do anything special, so it’s no wonder there was a big spike in Aus users that dropped off when most of them didn’t get it.

    When we started we had no Aussies attending our shows for a couple of months. The hype hit our shores and we found a bunch, the ones who liked our music are still regulars at the Friday night shows, I suspect the others couldn’t find anything in SL that interested them and gave up.

  10. ABC Island had a performance space that never got used. Bigpond didn’t do anything special, so it’s no wonder there was a big spike in Aus users that dropped off when most of them didn’t get it.

    When we started we had no Aussies attending our shows for a couple of months. The hype hit our shores and we found a bunch, the ones who liked our music are still regulars at the Friday night shows, I suspect the others couldn’t find anything in SL that interested them and gave up.

  11. I have been using second life doing a bit of Research for a while now. I can see everybody believe: there is a

    potential….. to use, potential growth all potentials.

    I dont really see ordinary people usign SL day to day or week to week for a purpose.

    Why: If you want to chat there are basic chat software, if you want search here is google.

    I think what is missing with SL is a target group. Now most of potential 3D users had a go on SL and found it is not straight forward as google. Problems with Logging, screen size issue, remembering what / where, times but for what reason. Just to have a character walk around and try to talk! Proud to be an island owner and people can visit and look! (Is that the reason?), The building created by non professionals look poor, even professionally completed buildings environments nowhere near as the scene on games like halo?

    I think XBOX, PS3 etc. software and sofware are filling MMO gap, especially with Multiuser LIVE. IT is surprised to see me 150.000 (150k) people queeing to play HALO at the same time online, chatting talking and playing.

    I think these consoles found the market but not SL, unless they found a real reason, interested parties on 3D will move on.

    I would like to hear what you think please email info@huddersfield3d.co.uk
    or visit http://www.huddersfield3d.co.uk

  12. I have been using second life doing a bit of Research for a while now. I can see everybody believe: there is a

    potential….. to use, potential growth all potentials.

    I dont really see ordinary people usign SL day to day or week to week for a purpose.

    Why: If you want to chat there are basic chat software, if you want search here is google.

    I think what is missing with SL is a target group. Now most of potential 3D users had a go on SL and found it is not straight forward as google. Problems with Logging, screen size issue, remembering what / where, times but for what reason. Just to have a character walk around and try to talk! Proud to be an island owner and people can visit and look! (Is that the reason?), The building created by non professionals look poor, even professionally completed buildings environments nowhere near as the scene on games like halo?

    I think XBOX, PS3 etc. software and sofware are filling MMO gap, especially with Multiuser LIVE. IT is surprised to see me 150.000 (150k) people queeing to play HALO at the same time online, chatting talking and playing.

    I think these consoles found the market but not SL, unless they found a real reason, interested parties on 3D will move on.

    I would like to hear what you think please email info@huddersfield3d.co.uk
    or visit http://www.huddersfield3d.co.uk

  13. Jazzman Jibilla says:

    Old thread but a good topic so it may never die.

    Dr. Unver has several good points. I disagree with him however about why people move on. The Linden Lab program is a terrific creation tool, putting the chatting and all aside, you can amuse yourself for hours visualizing in 3D and creating the object. Yes we amateurs are not the artists who create games like Halo, but there are terabytes of creations in sl I would put up against any XBox/PlatStation/Wii creation. Many of them in sl made by professional game developers.

    I think the problem for many people is the steep learning curve for the Secondlife program itself and all the associated programs you need to have a knowledge of to take full advantage of Secondlife.

    A lot of gamers just don’t have the patience, and, researchers and reporters are too busy researching and reporting to get their hands dirty. It is the same situation that resulted in that flush of real corporations coming into sl and thinking that setting up an island with their buildings or logos would do the trick. They gave up too because they kinda missed the point.

    The point is- Secondlife is a computer program people use to create in 3D. Some people use it to chat, cyber and see what other people are building but they don’t last long. LL would like it to be more and it has promise as an education vehicle, but unless you teach yourself through the tutorials or trial and error you won’t find much to do with the Secondlife program.

    It would seem that as of this date there are about 50,000 people hanging in. It will be interesting to see what happens to numbers when the baby boom of late 2006/early ’07 have their premium memberships come up for renewal.

  14. Jazzman Jibilla says:

    Old thread but a good topic so it may never die.

    Dr. Unver has several good points. I disagree with him however about why people move on. The Linden Lab program is a terrific creation tool, putting the chatting and all aside, you can amuse yourself for hours visualizing in 3D and creating the object. Yes we amateurs are not the artists who create games like Halo, but there are terabytes of creations in sl I would put up against any XBox/PlatStation/Wii creation. Many of them in sl made by professional game developers.

    I think the problem for many people is the steep learning curve for the Secondlife program itself and all the associated programs you need to have a knowledge of to take full advantage of Secondlife.

    A lot of gamers just don’t have the patience, and, researchers and reporters are too busy researching and reporting to get their hands dirty. It is the same situation that resulted in that flush of real corporations coming into sl and thinking that setting up an island with their buildings or logos would do the trick. They gave up too because they kinda missed the point.

    The point is- Secondlife is a computer program people use to create in 3D. Some people use it to chat, cyber and see what other people are building but they don’t last long. LL would like it to be more and it has promise as an education vehicle, but unless you teach yourself through the tutorials or trial and error you won’t find much to do with the Secondlife program.

    It would seem that as of this date there are about 50,000 people hanging in. It will be interesting to see what happens to numbers when the baby boom of late 2006/early ’07 have their premium memberships come up for renewal.

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